一种联合水文特征优化的滑坡周期项变形速度预测改进方法—以三峡新铺滑坡为例

A Novel Method for Landslide Periodic Velocity Prediction Combined With Hydrological Feature Optimization: A Case Study of Xinpu Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

  • 摘要: 受降雨与库水位等外部水文因素影响,库岸滑坡常呈现显著的周期性变形特征,但传统的滑坡预测方法难以有效捕捉周期项变形的突变拐点。针对这一问题,本文以三峡新铺滑坡为研究对象,通过对前期降水指数(Antecedent Precipitation Index,API)和库水位等水文特征进行优化,提出了一种改进的滑坡周期项变形速度预测方法。首先,综合利用温度、风速等气象数据对API推算方法进行改进,并构造库水位窗口变化特征数据,分别优化传统的降雨和库水位水文状态特征,增强水文特征驱动库岸滑坡变形的可解释性。然后将两类水文特征为输入信息,构建融合注意力机制的卷积长短期记忆网络(Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory model,CNN-LSTM)滑坡周期项变形速度预测网络。实验结果表明,优化后的水文特征与周期项变形速度的相关性显著提升,其中API优化信息与周期项变形速度相关系数由0.54提升至0.85;进一步地,滑坡周期项变形速度预测的RMSE降至0.54mm/d,比传统预测方法改善了47.06%,R2从0.69提升至0.94,实验结果表明,该方法能够为库岸滑坡灾害风险预测提供参考资料。

     

    Abstract: Objective: Reservoir-bank landslide, such as Xinpu landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir, is strongly influenced by external hydrological factors such as rainfall and water level, and they often exhibit visible periodic change. While traditional prediction approaches struggle to capture abrupt turning points in these periodic components, this study proposes a novel method for landslide periodic deformation velocity prediction combined with hydrological feature optimization, incorporating rainfall and reservoir water-level information. Methods: Meteorological data including temperature and wind speed were comprehensively utilized to refine the API estimation method, and the reservoir water level window variation feature data were constructed to enhance the interpretability of hydrological factors driving reservoir bank landslide deformation. Subsequently, a convolutional neural network long short-term memory model (CNN-LSTM) landslide periodic velocity prediction network was developed, incorporating both types of hydrological features as input. Results: Experimental results demonstrate a significant improvement in the correlation between optimized hydrological features and periodic deformation velocity. Specifically, the correlation coefficient between optimized API and landslide periodic velocity increased from 0.54 to 0.85. Furthermore, the RMSE for predicting the deformation rate of the periodic component of landslides decreased to 0.54 mm/d, representing a 47.06% improvement over traditional method. The R2 value increased from 0.69 to 0.94. Conclusions: The results indicate that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of landslide periodic velocity prediction by enhancing the interpretability of external hydrological factors. The related methods and results can provide reference material for early warning of reservoir-bank landslides.

     

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