Abstract:
Objectives: Typhoon track prediction is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. This study aims to develop a statistical framework that integrates environmental covariates to enhance the accuracy of typhoon track forecasting and improve the understanding of underlying evolutionary mechanisms.
Methods: A coupled Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) model within a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) framework was established using 2020-2024 typhoon track data from China along with environmental covariates including temperature, humidity, and wind fields. Key methodological innovations include: (1) integrating GAM's nonlinear modeling capability into the LGCP framework to overcome the limitations of traditional GLM in capturing complex typhoon-environment relationships; (2) developing a tensor product smoothing approach to model interaction effects among wind field factors, enabling quantitative assessment of synergistic effects between vertical wind shear and low-level wind speed.
Results: The analysis revealed a significant spatial correlation range of 15-25 degrees in longitude and latitude for typhoon track points. The GAM model demonstrated a 12.45% improvement in explanatory power compared to GLM, with sea surface temperature (26.73%), humidity (25.29%), and wind field interactions (25.12%) identified as primary driving factors. The synergistic effect between vertical wind shear and low-level wind speed was quantitatively evaluated at 25.12%.
Conclusions: This research provides an advanced spatial statistical tool for typhoon risk assessment and disaster management. The proposed "environmental factor-spatial process" coupled modeling framework offers a universal methodology for extreme weather prediction and climate adaptation planning. Theoretically, it reveals nonlinear environmental effects on typhoon tracks, cficantly to tropical cyclone genesis theory. Practically, it supports the optimization of early warning systems for coastal typhoon disasters and facilitates the implementation of national strategies for building climate-resilient cities.