地震灾害应急预案的生成式编制方法

A Generative Method for Earthquake Emergency Plans

  • 摘要: 地震灾害应急预案的编制具有高度规范性,如何提升编制效率、适应不同情境、确保措施的可行性,仍是当前应急管理中的重要挑战。提出了一种面向标准化流程的智能预案生成方法,构建了由大模型、智能体与知识图谱协同驱动的多阶段工作流。该工作流包括4个阶段:用户需求解析与结构化输入构建、智能体驱动的震后风险分析、知识增强的响应措施生成、大模型驱动的格式优化与质量评估,支持从需求理解到预案输出的全流程自动化。为支撑工作流运行,研究设计了省、市、县3级地震应急预案模板体系,并构建了一个包含117 915个节点与182 586条关系的应急知识图谱,系统整合了应急响应场景下的风险类型、应对措施、资源配置与职责划分等核心知识。实验部分选取了20份市县级地震应急预案作为参考样本,设计6个维度的评估指标体系,通过对比分析工作流生成方法与直接大语言模型生成方法的表现,验证了所提方法在全面性、可行性与合理性等核心指标上的优势。评估结果显示,工作流生成在多个维度上得分更高,结构更加规范,逻辑更为清晰,内容更具操作性。同时,案例分析进一步展示了工作流方法在资源列举准确性、结构优化与内容一致性方面的提升,表明该方法更能满足实战场景下的应急预案需求。并开发了交互式预案编制工具,整合工作流方法用于辅助实际预案生成,具备良好的实用性与推广价值。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives The formulation of earthquake emergency response plans is a highly standardized task that demands both procedural rigor and contextual adaptability. Existing methods often struggle to balance consistency with the need for situational specificity and actionable detail. This study aims to address these challenges by proposing an intelligent workflow for the automated generation of earthquake emergency plans. The objectives are threefold: (1) To enhance generation efficiency through automation. (2) To ensure procedural compliance and logical consistency; and (3) to improve the contextual relevance and implement ability of generated plans.
    Methods To achieve these goals, we propose a four-stage intelligent emergency plan generation framework that integrates large language models (LLM), intelligent agents, and knowledge graph. The workflow consists of four sequential stages: User intent parsing and structured input construction, agent-driven post-earthquake risk analysis, knowledge-enhanced response strategy generation, and LLM-driven format optimization and quality evaluation, enabling end-to-end automated plan generation. To support this workflow, we design a three-tier emergency plan template system covering provincial, municipal, and county levels, and construct a comprehensive emergency knowledge graph containing 117 915 nodes and 182 586 edges, representing key entities such as risk types, response measures, resource configurations, and organizational responsibilities.
    Results Experiments were conducted using 20 city- and county-level earthquake emergency plans as reference cases. A six-dimensional evaluation framework was designed to compare the proposed workflow method against direct LLM generation. Results demonstrate that the workflow method significantly outperforms direct LLM generation in key metrics such as completeness, feasibility, and coherence, producing more structured, logical, and actionable outputs. Further case analysis highlights the workflow's advantages in resource detailing, paragraph structuring, and content consistency, underscoring its effectiveness in real-world scenarios.
    Conclusions We present a novel, knowledge-augmented and agent-assisted framework for intelligent emergency plan generation, offering a practical and scalable solution to a traditionally manual process. By combining structured template, semantic knowledge graphs, intelligent agent reasoning, and LLM-based generation and evaluation, the proposed workflow ensures both procedural compliance and real-world applicability. An interactive planning tool has been developed to facilitate real-time use by emergency management practitioners, enabling customizable, region-specific, and ready-to-implement emergency plans. Future work will extend the system's capabilities to other disaster types and integrate predictive analytics for dynamic risk evolution modeling.

     

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