朝向感知与量化集成的屋顶光伏潜力估计方法

Roof Photovoltaic Potential Estimation Method of Orientation Sensing and Quantitative Integration

  • 摘要: 屋顶光伏发电作为城市可再生能源的重要组成部分,其发电效率的精准评估依赖于屋顶结构特征的准确判别。其中,屋顶面积及朝向识别是准确评估光伏发电潜能的关键步骤。当前主流方法通过深度学习模型从航拍影像中提取屋顶面积和朝向用于光伏潜能估计。然而,由于影像采集时太阳方位角差不同会致屋顶阴影分布存在差异,相同朝向的屋顶可能呈现显著表观区别,从而导致深度学习模型对屋顶结构特征的错误判别。为了解决上述问题,提出了一种新的太阳能潜力估算框架。首先,通过语义分割网络 DeepLabV3+从航拍影像中识别城市中屋顶区域及其各部分的朝向;其次,针对阴影区域引发的屋顶对向判别混淆,结合PVGIS 数据和多向量化集成策略计算太阳能潜力值。在 RID 数据集上的实验结果表明,估算框架采用DeepLabV3+相较于其他语义分割模型性能更优,多向量化集成策略能够有效提高太阳能估算的精度。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: As an essential component of urban renewable energy, the assessment of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) potential depends on the accurate identification of structural characteristics. In particular, determining rooftop area and orientation is crucial for reliable PV capacity evaluation. Current mainstream approaches employ deep learning models to extract rooftop area and orientation from aerial imagery for PV resource assessment. However, variations in solar azimuth angles during image acquisition leads to differences in rooftop shadow distribution, resulting in significant apparent discrepancies among rooftops with the same orientation. Consequently, deep learning models may misclassify rooftop structural features. Methods: To address this core limitation, this study proposes a novel framework for robust solar energy potential estimation. Firstly, the advanced semantic segmentation architecture DeepLabV3+ is employed to simultaneously delineate rooftop boundaries and classify each rooftop region into primary orientation categories from input aerial imagery. Secondly, crucially recognizing the susceptibility of visualbased orientation classification to shadow-induced errors, the framework incorporates a refinement stage. This integrates Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) data – a validated source for location-specific historical and modeled solar radiation data. A multi-orientation quantitative integration strategy uses PVGIS to calculate theoretical annual solar irradiation values by weighting and synthesizing these PVGIS-calculated values, which can effectively mitigate errors caused by visual misclassification. Results: The results on the RID dataset show that DeepLabV3+ outperforms other models, which can improve the performance of the proposed framework. The quantitative integration strategy narrows the relative error in solar potential estimation. For 4, 8, and 16 orientation categories, the proposed framework reduces estimation errors to 0.26%, 0.25%, and 1.07%, respectively. By excluding disturbances of flat roofs, relative errors are further reduced to 0.14%, 0.10%, and 0.68%, respectively, which demonstrates the effectiveness of our framework. Conclusions: By combining high-resolution rooftop segmentation/orientation with geospatial irradiation modeling and a quantitative mechanism to resolve orientation ambiguity, the proposed framework effectively mitigates a primary source of error in aerial image-based solar potential assessment. This significantly enhances estimation accuracy, providing a more reliable tool for urban-scale renewable energy planning and investment decisions.

     

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