利用HUST-Grace2024模型评估珠江流域陆地水储量的可持续性

Assessing the Sustainability of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Pearl River Basin Using HUST-Grace2024 Model

  • 摘要: 陆地水储量的可持续性评估及其影响因素分析对于水资源合理利用和社会经济发展等具有重要意义。本文利用华中科技大学最新发布的HUST-Graces2024模型反演了2003-2023年珠江流域的陆地水储量变化(terrestrial water storage change,TWSC)的时空特征,并与国际上5种常用GRACE (gravity recovery andclimate experiment)/GRACE-FO (GRACE follow-on)模型结果进行比较。然后,采用HUST-Graces2024模型计算的可持续性指数(sustainability index,SI)详细评估珠江流域及其子流域的水资源可持续状况,同时结合气象和水文数据定量分析了降水、蒸散发(evapotranspiration,ET)、径流和归一化植被指数(normalized differencevegetation index,NDVI)对TWSC的影响。结果显示,HUST-Graces2024与五种常用的国际模型计算得到的TWSC高度一致,其精度仅次于CSR RL06模型,与COST-G模型结果相当。研究时段内珠江流域的TWSC以4.7 mm/a的速度增长,其中南北盘江流域和红柳江流域的增长速度显著高于其他子流域。整体而言,珠江流域水资源处于轻度不可持续状态(SI=0.36),其中郁江流域和南北盘江流域的SI分别为最高(0.39)和最低(0.34)。此外,NDVI对珠江流域TWSC的影响最大,其次为径流、降水和ET。虽然这四种影响因素在所有子流域的贡献率排序是一致的,但其数值上存在显著的差异。本研究结果表明,HUST-Graces2024模型能够有效监测和评估珠江流域TWSC的时空演化过程及其可持续性,可为该地区水资源管理和科学决策等提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: As a core indicator for water resource management, the sustainability assessment of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is crucial for addressing climate change and ensuring regional water security. Methods: This study employed the latest HUST-Graces2024 model developed by Huazhong University of Science and Technology to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of TWS changes (TWSC) across the Pearl River Basin (PRB) from 2003 to 2023. The results were compared with those derived from five internationally recognized GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GRACE-FO (Follow-On) models. Using the Sustainability Index (SI) derived from HUST-Graces2024, we assessed the water resource sustainability in the PRB and its sub-basins. We also quantitatively evaluated the impact of precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on TWS using meteorological and hydrological data. Results: Findings indicate that the TWSC calculated by HUST-Graces2024 is highly consistent with that calculated by five commonly used international models. Its accuracy is second only to that of the CSR RL06 model, and it is comparable to the results of the COST-G model, indicating that the TWSC of the Pearl River Basin inverted by this model has higher reliability and accuracy. During the study period, TWS in the PRB increased at an average rate of 4.7 mm/year, with significantly faster growth in the Nanpan and Hongliu River sub-basins compared to others. Overall, although the water resources in the PRB are in a mildly unsustainable state (SI=0.36), with the Yujiang River Basin and Nanpan-Beipan River Basin having the highest (0.39) and lowest (0.34) SI values respectively, their sustainability is continuously improving. Among the influencing factors, NDVI has the greatest impact on the TWSC in the PRB, followed by runoff, precipitation, and ET. This indicates that vegetation coverage plays a significant role in regional soil and water conservation. Although the ranking of the contribution rates of these four influencing factors is consistent across all sub-basins, there are significant differences in their numerical values. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that the HUST-Graces2024 model effectively monitors and evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution and sustainability of TWSC in the PRB, providing valuable insights for regional water resource management and informed decision-making.

     

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