融合卷积模糊神经网络与SHAP特征优化的地震诱发滑坡易发性评价

Earthquake-Induced Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Fusing Convolutional Fuzzy Neural Network and SHAP Feature Optimization Strategy

  • 摘要: 地震诱发滑坡是一种破坏性极强、危险性极高的地质灾害,其易发性的准确评估对于震后救灾减灾及灾后重建至关重要。针对卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)在处理地震诱发滑坡样本时,易出现过拟合和多源数据不确定性问题,提出了一种基于卷积模糊神经网络(convolutional fuzzy neural network,CFNN)的地震诱发滑坡易发性方法。同时,引入SHAP特征优化策略,通过定量评估特征重要性对模型输入进行筛选和优化,提升模型的预测精度。选取2017年九寨沟7.0级地震、2022年芦山6.1级地震及2022年泸定6.8级地震组成研究区,涵盖5 990个滑坡实例,覆盖总面积72.147平方公里,选取16个滑坡影响因子,构建并优化CFNN模型,完成了研究区地震诱发滑坡易发性评价。结果表明,距河流的距离、地震峰值加速度(peak ground acceleration,PGA)、高程、土壤覆盖类型以及距断层的距离是影响滑坡发育的关键因素。在模型性能对比中,CFNN相较于传统CNN模型展现出更优的预测精度和显著的防过拟合能力。通过引入SHAP特征优化策略进一步优化后,CFNN模型在受试者工作特征曲线下的面积值(area under curve,AUC)达到0.942,表现出极高的预测性能。研究结果验证了CFNN模型在地震滑坡易发性评价中的可靠性,为地震滑坡灾害的预防和监测提供了新的理论依据和技术支持,同时也为深度学习模型在地质灾害领域的应用拓展提供了重要参考。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Earthquake-induced landslides, as a highly destructive and dangerous geologic hazard, the accurate assessment of their susceptibility is crucial for post-earthquake relief, mitigation, and post-disaster reconstruction. Methods: To address the limitations of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), such as susceptibility to overfitting and uncertainty in multi-source data, a novel approach based on a convolutional fuzzy neural network (CFNN) was developed. The approach combines the efficient feature extraction capability of CNN with the strong uncertainty handling capability of fuzzy logic to achieve accurate modeling and feature optimization of landslide influencing factors. Additionally, the SHAP feature optimization strategy was introduced to quantitatively evaluate feature importance, enabling the selection and optimization of model inputs. The 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0, the 2022 Lushan Ms6.1, and the 2022 Luding Ms6.8 earthquakes were selected to form the study area, which includes a total of 5,990 landslide instances covering an area of 72.147 km2. A total of 16 landslide impact factors were selected for comprehensive analysis. The CFNN model was constructed and optimized to evaluate earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility in the study area. Results: The results indicate that the distance to rivers, peak ground acceleration (PGA), elevation, soil cover type, and distance to faults are the key factors influencing landslide development. Compared to traditional CNN model, the CFNN model demonstrates superior performance and exhibits significant overfitting resistance. Furthermore, after incorporating the SHAP-based feature optimization strategy, the performance of the CFNN model was further enhanced, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.942, indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Conclusions: The results verify the reliability of the CFNN model in earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation, providing a new theoretical basis and technical support for the prevention and monitoring of such disasters. Moreover, these results provide a valuable reference for advancing the application of deep learning models in geohazard studies.

     

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