中国滑坡体积快速估算的幂律模型与几何模型方法

The power-law and geometry-modelling method for rapid estimation of landslide volume in China

  • 摘要: 滑坡体积的准确和快速估算是滑坡灾害评估和防治工作的重要基础,对及时了解滑坡灾害的规模和潜在威胁、制定合理的防治方案、评估灾害损失以及提高防灾减灾能力具有重要意义。针对我国滑坡体积估算中实际调查难度大、估算理论依据不足的现状,根据文献汇报收集了中国近30年(1995年-2024年)的滑坡数据,建立了适用于我国不同地区的滑坡面积-体积幂律关系模型,并对幂律关系进行几何验证与数学证明,实现了对滑坡体积的快速估算。同时,还对基于几何建模的滑坡体积估算方法及其改进进行了讨论与分析,总结了滑坡体积估算的幂律方法和几何建模方法各自的适用特点。研究成果为滑坡体积的估算提供了理论支撑,为快速估算滑坡体积及评估滑坡危害性提供了重要参考。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: The accurate and rapid estimation of landslide volume is a fundamental component in landslide disaster assessment and mitigation efforts. It plays a significant role in understanding the scale and potential risks of landslide disasters, formulating effective prevention and control measures, assessing disaster losses, and enhancing disaster risk reduction capabilities. However, in China, estimating the volume of landslides in remote mountainous regions is highly challenging, and the existing methods are not applicable to emergency situations that require rapid response. Methods: In response to the challenges of conducting field surveys and the insufficient theoretical foundation for landslide volume estimation in China, landslide data from the past 30 years (1995-2024) were collected based on literature reports. We obtained information such as the length, width, area, and volume of the landslides, and then used the landslide area-volume power-law relationship and geometric modeling methods to obtain model parameters, enabling the estimation of unknown landslide volumes. Results: We ultimately established a landslide area-volume power-law relationship model applicable to different regions of China, and geometrically validated and mathematically proven the landslide power-law relationship. Then the variation patterns and ranges of the power-law parameters under different environmental conditions were discussed. Additionally, we discussed and analyzed the landslide volume estimation method based on geometric-modeling and its improvements, compared the accuracy of two methods for landslide volume estimation, and summarized the applicability and characteristics of each method. Conclusions: The power-law model can effectively estimate the landslide volume and has good applicability in practical use. On the other hand, the geometric modeling method fully considers the geometric characteristics of the landslide. Compared to previous methods, it requires simpler parameter acquisition, has a solid theoretical basis in empirical formulas, and offers stronger applicability. The research findings provide theoretical support for the estimation of landslide volume and offer important reference for rapid estimation of landslide volume and assessment of landslide hazards.

     

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