利用地理流网络分析探测全球冲突社区结构

Community Detection of Global Conflict Based on Geographical Flow Network Analysis

  • 摘要: 21世纪以来国际关系错综复杂,全球冲突此起彼伏。国家/地区之间的彼此影响形成了内部联系紧密的冲突集团,全面分析冲突集团的特征能够增进对国际局势的整体感知,为制定外交策略提供参考。冲突事件中的信息与物质的流动构成了国际冲突流这一特殊的地理流,地理流网络化挖掘以其全面的建模与分析能力为大尺度、动态性的国际冲突研究提供了方法基础。基于全球事件、语言和语调数据库提取国际冲突事件,以国家/地区为节点、国际冲突为边,构建时序的全球冲突流网络,运用多层社区分析、聚类分析等方法挖掘了国家/地区的冲突集团,并分析了不同类型冲突集团所反映的交互特征。研究结果表明:社区的拓扑特征、动态特性有助于进一步对冲突集团进行区分,针对冲突集团特征与模式的分析揭示出全球尺度整体上以中等规模的国际冲突为主,并且可以归纳为全球性综合冲突、区域性低强度冲突、局部持续性冲突、小规模冻结冲突以及局部热点地缘冲突。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Since the 21st century, persistent global conflicts have intensified the uncertainty in international relations. The interactions in conflicts form a distinct type of geographical flow, known as conflict flow. The comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and patterns within conflict flow can enhance the understanding of international relations and offer valuable insights for policy planning. Conflict events provide details of interactions between countries or regions, thereby offering a foundation for the study of large-scale and long-term conflict relations. Meanwhile, the development of network analysis has facilitated the representation of relationships, providing a feasible method for the study of conflict flow.
    Methods Theories and methodologies concerning complex networks, particularly multilayer networks, are utilized to analyze the conflicts with dynamic characteristics between countries or regions. First, based on event data in the global database of events, languages and tones from 2021 to 2022, conflict events can be represented as edges between the nodes of countries or regions. The temporal international conflict flow network can be constructed by organizing and segmenting conflicts monthly. Second, the communities of countries or regions nodes can be identified from the international conflict flow network using a Louvain-like algorithm adapted for multilayer networks. Finally, these communities can be further represented as sub-networks. Based on the network topological feature measurements, a method that integrates clustering analysis, statistical analysis, and visualization can be employed to infer international conflict patterns within the communities.
    Results The statistical analysis of networks indicates that the countries or regions involved in conflicts remain relatively stable. However, the overall intensity of conflicts could demonstrate fluctuations du‑ring specific events. The spatial distribution of communities indicates that international conflicts are generally dispersed, while exhibiting aggregative patterns within localized areas. From statistical and clustering analysis of the network topological features, the communities can be classified into five distinct types, each representing a unique conflict pattern: (1) Global comprehensive conflicts are characterized as large-scale conflicts exhibiting limited overall intensity, primarily driven by a limited number of major countries or regions. (2) Low-intensity regional conflicts are primarily associated with large-scale international conflicts within specific areas, with relatively limited intensity and overall influence. (3) Localized persistent conflicts are mainly concentrated in localized areas within a specific continent, with the composition, intensity, and influence of conflicts remaining relatively stable. (4) Small-scale frozen conflicts can be classified as a category of stable conflicts, with limited scale and intensity. These conflicts are primarily associated with continuous bilateral events between neighboring countries or regions. (5) Localized intense geopolitical conflicts tend to cluster around areas with unstable situations. These conflicts are primarily associated with high-frequency, high-intensity bilateral conflict events between key countries or regions. The statistical and visual analysis indicate that the frequency and intensity of conflicts between most countries or regions remain relatively li‑mited, except for the localized intense geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, with the exception of global comprehensive conflicts, the majority of conflict clusters exhibit a cohesive spatial distribution pattern.
    Conclusions The international conflict flow network shows an overall stable distribution of conflicts with significant dynamic variations in intensity and frequency within localized areas. The characteristics associated with different types of conflicts can be reflected in the internal structure of the corresponding communities. Large-scale conflicts and intense geopolitical conflicts comprise limited proportions of international multi-actor conflicts. Therefore, the overall international environment can still be characterized by peace and stability. For countries or regions, detailed analysis of community structures within the international conflict flow network can provide additional support and reference for the dynamic adjustment of foreign policy and strategies.

     

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