考虑InSAR地表形变的滑坡易发性评价负样本选取与结果优化

Negative Sample Selection and Result Optimization for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Considering InSAR Surface Deformation

  • 摘要: 滑坡易发性结果是滑坡灾害防控工作的重要参考,准确建模对灾害预警和风险管控至关重要。然而,在滑坡易发性建模过程中,非滑坡样本的选取存在较强的随机性,且未充分考虑滑坡负样本可能来源于潜在滑坡区域,导致评估结果的准确性受限。因此,提出了一种基于合成孔径雷达干涉测量(interferometric synthetic aperture radar, InSAR)的地表形变信息滑坡负样本采样策略,以四川省汉源县为例,采用小基线集InSAR技术生成年平均地表形变速率,并从形变速率极低的区域中生成滑坡负样本。结果表明,在极端梯度提升和随机森林(random forest,RF)模型中,基于InSAR的采样方法均显著提升了模型的预测性能。其中,InSAR-RF模型的预测精度最高,受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.847,准确率为89.8%,相比于传统的缓冲区采样方法,分别提高了5.5%和5.6%。此外,通过将InSAR数据引入模型优化滑坡易发性制图结果,并利用沙普利加性解释法解释模型内部的决策机制,进一步增强了滑坡易发性评价的科学性和可靠性。所提方法为InSAR技术在机器学习预测滑坡易发性中的应用提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Landslide is one of the most frequent and destructive geological hazards in the world, posing significant threats to human lives, property, and natural environments. Accurate landslide susceptibility modeling is critical for disaster early warning and risk management. However, a major challenge in this process is the selection of non-landslide samples, which is often arbitrary and overlooks the fact that these samples might originate from potentially unstable areas, leading to reduced model accuracy.
    Methods To address this, a novel negative sample selection strategy based on interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ground deformation data is proposed. Taking Hanyuan County, Sichuan Province as the study area, annual average ground deformation rates are generated using the small baseline subset InSAR technique. Negative samples are extracted from the regions which exhibit extremely low deformation rates, representing areas unlikely to experience landslides.
    Results Results demonstrate that the InSAR-based sampling method significantly improves predictive performance in both extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) models. The InSAR-RF model achieves the highest accuracy, with the area under the curve of 0.847 and the overall accuracy of 89.8%, representing 5.5% and 5.6% improvement, respectively, over traditional buffer-based sampling approaches. Additionally, to overcome the lack of dynamic features in conventional landslide susceptibility assessment, InSAR data are integrated with machine learning models, and an evaluation matrix is constructed to refine susceptibility mapping. The decision mechanisms within the models are further analyzed using shapley additive explanations to enhance interpretability.
    Conclusions The InSAR-based negative sampling strategy not only improves model accuracy, but also strengthens the scientific reliability of landslide susceptibility assessments by integrating real-world deformation data. It offers a new approach for landslide hazard early warning and risk management.

     

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