考虑InSAR地表形变的滑坡易发性评价负样本选取与结果优化

Optimizing Negative Sample Selection and Results for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using InSAR Surface Deformation

  • 摘要: 滑坡易发性结果是滑坡灾害防控工作的重要参考,准确的建模对于灾害预警和风险管控至关重要。然而,在滑坡易发性建模过程中,非滑坡样本的选取存在较强的随机性,且未充分考虑滑坡负样本可能来源于潜在滑坡区域,导致评估结果的准确性受到限制。为此,提出了一种基于InSAR地表形变信息的滑坡负样本采样策略,以四川省汉源县为例,采用小基线集合成孔径雷达干涉测量( small baseline subset interferometric synthetic aperture radar,SBAS-InSAR)技术生成年平均地表形变速率,并从形变速率极低的区域中生成滑坡负样本。结果表明,在极端梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)和随机森林模型(random forest,RF)中,基于InSAR的采样方法均显著提升了模型的预测性能。其中,InSAR-RF模型的预测精度最高,AUC值为0.847,准确率为89.8%,相较于传统的缓冲区采样方法,分别提高了4.4%和5.7%。此外,通过将InSAR数据引入模型优化滑坡易发性制图结果,并利用SHAP(shapley additive explanations)算法解释模型内部的决策机制,进一步增强了滑坡易发性评价的科学性和可靠性。所提方法为InSAR技术在机器学习预测滑坡易发性中的应用提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: Landslides are among the most frequent and destructive geological hazards worldwide, posing significant threats to human lives, property, and natural environments. Accurate landslide susceptibility modeling is critical for disaster early warning and risk management. However, a major challenge in this process is the selection of non-landslide samples, which is often arbitrary and overlooks the fact that these samples might originate from potentially unstable areas, leading to reduced model accuracy. Methods: To address this, a novel negative sample selection strategy based on InSAR-derived ground deformation data is proposed. Using Hanyuan County, Sichuan Province as a case study, annual average ground deformation rates were generated using the small baseline subset interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique. Negative samples were extracted from regions exhibiting extremely low deformation rates, representing areas unlikely to experience landslides. Results: Results demonstrate that this InSAR-based sampling method significantly improves predictive performance in both extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) models. The InSAR-RF model achieved the highest accuracy, with an AUC of 0.847 and an overall accuracy of 89.8%, representing a 4.4% and 5.7% improvement, respectively, over traditional buffer-based sampling approaches. Additionally, to address the lack of dynamic features in conventional landslide susceptibility assessment, this study integrates InSAR data with machine learning models, constructing an evaluation matrix to refine susceptibility mapping. The decision mechanisms within the models were further analyzed using shapley additive explanations (SHAP) to enhance interpretability. Conclusions: This InSAR-based negative sampling strategy not only improves model accuracy but also strengthens the scientific reliability of landslide susceptibility assessments by integrating real-world deformation data. It offers a new approach for landslide hazard early warning and risk management.

     

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