降雨数据稀缺山区地质灾害的降雨阈值研究——以茂县为例

Rainfall Thresholds for Geological Disasters in Rainfall Data-Scarce Mountainous : A Case Study of Mao County

  • 摘要: 降雨诱发地质灾害导致大规模人员财产损失,建立降雨阈值可有效降低地质灾害的危害性,而在数据稀缺山区,缺乏雨量信息来构建降雨阈值。因此,对全球降水计划数据产品进行降尺度处理,并利用雨量站验证其数据的有效性。结合灾害数据提取降雨事件,采用频率法建立茂县地区不同灾害、不同精度的临界阈值,并分析了震后阈值曲线随年份的演变规律。结果表明:(1)降尺度处理可有效提高降雨产品的空间分辨率和捕捉降雨能力;(2)茂县地区的降雨型滑坡主要受长时弱降雨控制,而泥石流主要受短时强降雨控制,假设累积降雨量为E,降雨历时为D,则临界阈值方程分别为:E=4.17D0.18(8<D<868),E=3.93D0.24(10<D<441);(3)降尺度后的降雨阈值较未降尺度的阈值低,临界阈值E的方程可表示为:E=3.96D0.21(4<D<736),E=4.09D0.19(8<D<868);(4)震后茂县地区诱发地质灾害的降雨事件由长时弱降雨转变为短时强降雨控制,降雨阈值随时间推移呈增大趋势。该研究对于茂县地区降雨型地质灾害的防灾减灾工作具有科学指导。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Rainfall-induced geological disasters often result in significant human and property losses, and rainfall thresholds can effectively reduce the hazards of geological disasters. However, limited rainfall data in mountainous areas lead to low accuracy of rainfall thresholds. Establishing rainfall thresholds in mountainous areas with scarce data is an unresolved problem.
    Methods We downscale global precipitation measurement (GPM) data to the resolution of 1 km and verify its validity with ground station rainfall. By combining disaster data, we extract rainfall events and obtain critical thresholds for different types of disasters and different precisions in Mao County based on the frequency method. Furthermore, we also analyze the evolution of the threshold curves over the years following the earthquake.
    Results Rainfall-induced landslides in Mao Country area are primarily controlled by long-duration weak rainfall, while debris flows are dominated by short-duration intense rainfall. Assuming cumulative rainfall is E and rainfall duration is D, the critical threshold equations are: E=4.17D0.18 (8<D<868) and E=3.93D0.24 (10<D<441). The rainfall threshold after downscaling is lower than the unscaled threshold, and the critical threshold equation can be expressed as: E=4.09D0.19 (8<D<868) and E=3.96D0.21 (4<D<736). The rainfall events that triggered geological disasters in Mao County after the earthquake have shift from long-duration weak rainfall to short-duration intense rainfall control, and rainfall thresholds show an increasing trend over time.
    Conclusions Downscaling can effectively enhance the spatial resolution of rainfall products and improve their ability to capture rainfall events. The critical thresholds established by downscaled data can serve as the minimum indicators for disaster monitoring and early warning in Mao County.

     

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