西南天山造山带现今地壳构造变形有限元模拟

Finite Element Simulation of Present Crustal Deformation in the Southwest Tianshan Orogenic Belt

  • 摘要: 作为世界上最年轻的复活型内陆造山带,天山现今构造变形复杂而剧烈,地震活动频繁,是研究陆内造山过程及其动力学机理的天然实验室。以GPS(Global Positioning System)观测的地壳水平运动速率为约束,充分考虑区域内主要活动断裂,结合岩石圈分层结构参数,建立了西南天山及其相邻区域的三维弹性-粘弹性有限元模型,模拟计算了研究区域内的地表形变场、区域主应变率、主要活动断层的应力积累速率及其库仑应力变化率。模拟结果表明天山区域应力场以南北向挤压为主,造山带内部平均应变率为3.5× 10-8/a;柯坪断裂、迈丹断裂和那拉提断裂均具有较高的应力积累速率,未来发生强震的可能性较高,其中柯坪断裂的西段库仑应力增长速率最快,高达1.5 kPa/a;通过设置不同块体单独加载的数值模拟实验,分析了帕米尔高原和塔里木盆地在西南天山构造演化中所扮演的角色,在帕米尔高原与塔里木盆地交界以东,天山区域主要受到塔里木盆地推挤与帕米尔高原向东挤出的共同作用,而在交界以西主要受到帕米尔高原的北向推挤作用,塔里木盆地作用有限。模拟结果定量给出了天山主要断裂的应力积累模式,揭示了南天山西段汇聚变形可能的动力学机制,为该地区未来地震危险性评估提供了有力支撑。

     

    Abstract: Objectives: As the youngest intra-land Cenozoic resurrected orogenic belt, the Tianshan region exhibits intricate tectonic deformation and frequent seismic activities, rendering it a natural laboratory for investigating continental dynamics. Through numerical simulations, our objective is to obtain stress accumulation patterns of major faults in the Tianshan region. By conducting numerical simulation experiments with individually loaded blocks, this study aims to analyze the respective roles of the Pamir Plateau and the Tarim Basin in the tectonic evolution of the southwest Tianshan. Methods: In this study, we constructed a three-dimensional elastic-viscoelastic finite element model of the Southwest Tianshan by incorporating GPS (Global Positioning System) observations as a constraint and considering the prominent active faults and layered lithospheric structure. Based on the finite element model, we simulated the crustal deformation field, the principal strain rate within the region, as well as stress accumulation rates of major active faults and their corresponding Coulomb stress change rates. Results: The simulation results indicate that the stress field in the Tianshan orogenic belt is dominated by the principal compressive stress in north-south direction, and the average strain rate inside the orogenic belt is 3.5×10-8/a. The Keping, Maidan, and Nalati faults exhibit high rates of stress accumulation, indicating a significant likelihood of future strong earthquakes. Notably, the western section of the Keping fault demonstrates the most rapid increase in Coulomb stress, reaching up to 1.5 kPa/a. The results of individually loading experiments reveal that the tectonic deformation of the Tianshan to the east of the junction between the Tarim Basin and Pamir Plateau is primarily influenced by a combined extrusion force exerted by these two blocks. The Tianshan orogenic belt to the west of the junction is predominantly influenced by the extrusion of the Pamir Plateau, while the Tarim Basin plays a limited role. Conclusions: Through numerical simulations, we quantitatively derived the stress accumulation patterns of the major faults in the Tianshan region and revealed the potential dynamic mechanism underlying convergent deformation in the southwest Tianshan, thereby providing robust support for future seismic risk assessment of this area.

     

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