Objectives The coordinated development between cities is a necessary condition for the sustainable development of urban agglomeration. The urban development boundary can balance urban development with ecological and agricultural protection.

Methods Based on the perspective of double evaluation, this paper combines with patch-generating land use simulation model and multi-objective planning. It constructs a sustainable and coordinated development scenario, simulates the land use of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration in 2035 under various scenarios, and studies the demarcation of urban development boundary.

Results Compared with the natural development scenario, the urban construction land expansion under the sustainable and coordinated development scenario is more in line with the needs of the coordinated development of urban agglomeration, and the simulated land use pattern gives full play to the advantages of natural resources in the region. The urban development boundary based on the scenario of sustainable and coordinated development is in line with the development pattern of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo as the development center of the Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration. Additionally, the special purpose area ensures the urban development and the protection of ecological resources and living environment. A multi-objective planning model is established from the perspective of dual evaluation to maximize the positive and ecological benefits of future land use in the Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration, and the simulated land use distribution pattern is more reasonable.

Conclusions The proposed method of urban development boundary demarcation can provide technical help for the demarcation of urban development boundary in China and urban agglomerations.