突发公共卫生事件下的城市社会经济活动时空变化分析

Temporal and Spatial Variation Analysis of Urban Socioeconomic Activity in Public Health Emergencies

  • 摘要: 以美国洛杉矶、达拉斯和纽约3个主要城市群为研究区域,基于夜光数据构建平均夜光强度差异值和夜光稳定度两个指标,反映突发公共事件持续期间不同激增期内城市夜光水平的时空变化特征。采用客观赋权法融合移动大数据构建出行意愿指数和场景流动指数,表征区域流动性在不同激增期内的时空差异特征。研究结果表明,城市夜光水平在第一次激增期内降幅较大,城市经济活动受影响更显著,在第二次激增期中,大部分城市经济活动已经恢复至良好水平;城市社会活动变化在第一次激增期内主要表现为场景流动指数的降低,在第二次激增期中,不论是场景流动指数还是出行意愿指数都出现了不同程度的降低。根据激增时间点结合不同地区的社交疏远政策,可以对流动性的变化趋势做出良好的解释。通过夜光数据与移动大数据来表示城市经济社会活动变化,可以了解突发公共卫生事件的反弹对城市社会经济活动的影响,以期为未来可能出现的新型突发公共卫生事件制定对应的社会经济政策提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives This paper aims to explore the characteristics of changes in urban socioeconomic activities during a public health emergency. Three major urban agglomerations, including Los Angeles, Dallas and New York, are selected as the study areas.
    Methods First, the difference value of average nighttime light intensity and nighttime light stability are constructed based on nighttime light data to reflect the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of urban nighttime light levels during different surge periods of the duration of public emergencies. Then, based on the objective weighting method and mobility big data, the travel willingness index and scene mobility index are constructed to characterize the spatial and temporal differences of regional mobility in different surge periods.
    Results The results show that, in the first surge period, the level of urban nighttime light decreases greatly and urban economic activities are affected significantly, while in the second surge period, economic activities in most cities recover to a good level. The change of urban social activities in the first surge period is mainly reflected as the decrease of scene mobility index, while in the second surge period, both scene mobility index and travel willingness index decrease to different degrees. Combined with social distancing policies in different regions, the trend of mobility can be well explained according to the surge.
    Conclusions By using nighttime light data and mobility big data to represent the changes of urban social and economic activities, we can understand the impacts of the rebound of public health emergency on urban social and economic activities, in order to provide scientific reference for the development of social and economic policies corresponding to the possible public health emergencies in the future.

     

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