方志祥. 公共卫生与安全应急视角下人群动态的观测思考与挑战[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2020, 45(12): 1847-1856. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20200422
引用本文: 方志祥. 公共卫生与安全应急视角下人群动态的观测思考与挑战[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2020, 45(12): 1847-1856. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20200422
FANG Zhixiang. Thinking and Challenges of Crowd Dynamics Observation from the Perspectives of Public Health and Public Security[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2020, 45(12): 1847-1856. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20200422
Citation: FANG Zhixiang. Thinking and Challenges of Crowd Dynamics Observation from the Perspectives of Public Health and Public Security[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2020, 45(12): 1847-1856. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20200422

公共卫生与安全应急视角下人群动态的观测思考与挑战

Thinking and Challenges of Crowd Dynamics Observation from the Perspectives of Public Health and Public Security

  • 摘要: 公共卫生事件和公共安全应急事件凸显了人群动态的观测重要性,人群动态的观测是对人观测的重要组成部分,也是构建“空-天-地-海-人”全球观测体系的重要环节。首先介绍人群动态的观测概念、内涵和边界,以及该方面理论的作用与意义;接着,基于公共卫生与安全应急的视野,重点分析人群动态的精准性、科学性和按需性等观测需求,以及人群动态的数据感知、人群规模的采样扩样、人群动态的定量建模、人群动态研究领域等现状;然后,从4个重要方面思考人群动态的观测任务,包括个体与群体的严谨区分、以时空过程为中心的非常态观测、数据缺失下的观测思维突破、特定情景推演下的人群动态科学预测等;最后,结合公共卫生与安全应急任务,总结3个重要的研究挑战,包括观测能力的提升挑战、对人与对地观测的融合观测挑战、对人观测的研究伦理挑战等。该研究所提出的概念、思考维度与挑战方向,对应对公共卫生与安全应急重大事件、弄清城市多类空间发展规律、掌握空间演进分异机制、掌控城市空间发展路径等提供基础理论与方法,具有重要的前沿探索意义。

     

    Abstract: Public health and public security events present the importance of crowd dynamics observation. The crowd dynamics observation should be a key component of human-orient observation, and the necessary elements of global observation system framework consisting observations of space, sky, land, ocean and people. This paper firstly introduces a concept of crowd dynamics observation, defines its scientific connotations and boundaries, and highlights the role and significance of this theory. Then, from the perspective of public health and safety emergency, this paper analyzes the characteristics of accuracy, scientific city and on-demand in crow dynamics observation requirements, and introduces the state of art of crowd dynamics observation including data perception of crowd dynamics, sampling and expansion of population scale, and quantitative modeling of crowd dynamics, crowd dynamics research field, etc. Next, this paper thinks about the observation tasks of crowd dynamics from four important aspects, such as, rigorous distinction between individuals and groups, abnormal observations centered on spatiotemporal processes, breakthroughs in observational thinking under missing data, and scientific predictions of crowd dynamics under specific scenarios, etc. Finally, this paper summarizes three important research challenges combined with public health and safety emergency tasks, namely, the challenge of improving observation capabilities, the challenge of fusion observation of human and earth observation, and the research ethical challenge of human observation. In short, the concepts, thinking dimensions and challenges proposed in this paper provide basic theories and methods for major public health and safety emergencies, clarifying the laws of urban multi-type spatial development, mastering the differentiation mechanism of spatial evolution, and controlling urban spatial development paths. All of them show assignificance of the frontier exploration.

     

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