韩松辉, 宫轶松, 李建文, 马朝忠, 李新娜, 郭淑妹. 基于ARMA模型的BDS卫星钟差异常值探测及其短期预报[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2021, 46(2): 244-251. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20190232
引用本文: 韩松辉, 宫轶松, 李建文, 马朝忠, 李新娜, 郭淑妹. 基于ARMA模型的BDS卫星钟差异常值探测及其短期预报[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2021, 46(2): 244-251. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20190232
HAN Songhui, GONG Yisong, LI Jianwen, MA Chaozhong, LI Xinna, GUO Shumei. Outliers Detection in BDS Satellite Clock Errors by Using ARMA Model and Corresponding Short-Term Prediction[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2021, 46(2): 244-251. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20190232
Citation: HAN Songhui, GONG Yisong, LI Jianwen, MA Chaozhong, LI Xinna, GUO Shumei. Outliers Detection in BDS Satellite Clock Errors by Using ARMA Model and Corresponding Short-Term Prediction[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2021, 46(2): 244-251. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20190232

基于ARMA模型的BDS卫星钟差异常值探测及其短期预报

Outliers Detection in BDS Satellite Clock Errors by Using ARMA Model and Corresponding Short-Term Prediction

  • 摘要: 星载原子钟在运行过程中会受到恶劣空间环境与设备老化等因素的影响, 使得卫星钟差数据中经常存在异常值, 其中AO(additive outlier)类异常值是钟差序列中常见的一类异常值。结合最大期望算法与自回归滑动平均(autoregressive moving average, ARMA)模型, 提出一种AO类异常值探测算法。该算法可以准确探测孤立AO类异常值与成片AO类异常值, 有效克服了其他算法经常出现的淹没与掩盖现象。在成功探测钟差序列AO类异常值的同时, 该算法可以估计得到精确的ARMA模型, 进而能准确地进行卫星钟差预报。利用仿真数据与北斗卫星钟差实测数据进行计算分析, 结果表明, 所提算法可以精确探测出钟差序列AO类异常值, 并且具有很好的卫星钟差预报效果。

     

    Abstract: The on-board atomic clock will be affected by such factors as bad space conditions and aging equipment while it is working, so there are often outliers in the satellite clock error data, among which the additive outlier (AO) is a common class of outliers in the clock error sequence. Based on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, this paper proposes an AO detection algorithm, which can not only accurately detect isolated AO, but also accurately detect pieces of AO, and overcome the overwhelming and masking phenomenon that often occurs in other algorithms. When the AO of the clock error sequence is successfully detected, the algorithm can obtain an accurate ARMA model, and then accurately predict satellite clock error. In order to analyze the outlier detection and prediction effect of this algorithm, BeiDou satellite clock error is used to verify it. The results show that the proposed algorithm can accurately detect the AO of the clock error sequence, and has good effects in the short-term prediction of satellite clock errors.

     

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