段功豪, 牛瑞卿, 赵艳南, 张凯翔, 咬登魁. 基于动态指数平滑模型的降雨诱发型滑坡预测[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2016, 41(7): 958-962. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20140276
引用本文: 段功豪, 牛瑞卿, 赵艳南, 张凯翔, 咬登魁. 基于动态指数平滑模型的降雨诱发型滑坡预测[J]. 武汉大学学报 ( 信息科学版), 2016, 41(7): 958-962. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20140276
DUAN Gonghao, NIU Ruiqing, ZHAO Yannan, ZHANG Kaixiang, YAO Dengkui. Rainfall-induced Landslide Prediction Based on Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2016, 41(7): 958-962. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20140276
Citation: DUAN Gonghao, NIU Ruiqing, ZHAO Yannan, ZHANG Kaixiang, YAO Dengkui. Rainfall-induced Landslide Prediction Based on Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2016, 41(7): 958-962. DOI: 10.13203/j.whugis20140276

基于动态指数平滑模型的降雨诱发型滑坡预测

Rainfall-induced Landslide Prediction Based on Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model

  • 摘要: 为了快速而准确地分析降雨型滑坡的变形趋势,以指数平滑法为数学基础,从滑坡的实际演化阶段出发,建立外界主要诱发因素与模型参数的关联,引入月累积降雨量作为模型参数动态评估因子,对白家包滑坡90期累积位移数据进行了拟合及预测。最终拟合的累计位移平均绝对误差和相关系数分别为11.346和0.933。与传统的静态参数方法相比,这种方法更符合降雨型滑坡发展的一般规律,预测精度更高。

     

    Abstract: We analyze the accuracy trends in landslide deformation, based on the exponential smoothing method and the practical stage of evolution landslide. We establish a connection between the main predisposing factor and model parameters, introducing monthly cumulative rainfall as the evaluation factor for the dynamic model parameter. We use cumulative displacement data from Baijiabao landslide for fitting and forecasting. The result shows that the absolute error and correlation coefficients in our final modal were 11.346 and 0.933. Compared with the conventional method using static parameters, the proposed more in line with the general laws of development of rainfall-induced landslides, and is more accurate.

     

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