利用EMD方法改进电离层TEC预报模型

Prediction Models of Ionospheric TEC Improved by EMD Method

摘要: 针对总电子含量（TEC)非线性、非平稳特性，将经验模态分解(EMD)方法引入此领域的数据处理中，利用EMD分解后的数据进行时间序列分析预报。采用IGS提供的2010年电离层TEC数据进行实验，结果表明，利用此方法预报5 d内TEC的平均相对精度为92.25%，而采用单一时间序列分析预报的平均相对精度为89%。

Abstract: The Ionosphere is a complex system, and of which total electron content (TEC) is a representative parameters. For its non\|linear and non\|stationary characteristics, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is proposed for data processing in this field. And the data decomposed with EMD are used to do time series analysis and predict TEC value.Prediction and comparison experiment is carried out with the data provided by IGS in 2010. And the results show that the mean relative precision of TEC predicted within 5 days is 92.25% by the proposed method , while it is 89% by the single time series analysis.